Sunday, November 1, 2009

Horse sense in the Market and Underestimation of VIG

Allow me to quote from Daily Spec

"This reinforces T@leb's argument that life is becoming over-optimised, reducing the slack in the system that's necessary to absorb the impact of the unforeseen. I have seen this myself recently, having interviewed a kid who was near top of his class at IIT and IIM, top of his class at a top tier MS in quant finance, straight As and a bonafide mathemagician. But he had zero intuition about the mechanics of the market, the vig or anything else. Everything was an equation to be solved where one simply cranks the wheel and spits out the answer." - Nick White

I have encountered situations where learned people under estimating the market realities and friction ( transactional costs).

  1. One stockbroker explaining to me how high brokerage costs doesnt matter . It reminded me of Victor's anger when he was given dubious quotes on the floor of the exchanges.
  2. Dealers buying 5% spread for customers and buying at the market in which there is scant volume.
  3. Inappropriate use of Order types in the market situation.( Stop loss, Limit Orders)
  4. Need for recognising how the " Obvious therefore Dubious " ( Courtesy GM Nigel Davis of DailySpec) more often than not as evidenced by Indian Market on Friday ( Nifty opening at + 110 points and closing at -40 points). Am I hearing Victor's admonition here ( You can find any example retrospectively in the market to fit your analogy )


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