- " As expected/ As predicted " is one of the most frequent phrase used in analyst comments/ Media reports. But Market movement is probabilistic involving both luck and skill. Only in hindsight we attribute market success to the competence of the trader. Read NNTaleb's Scandal of Prediction.
- When I am working with TCSS as equity research analyst one of my tasks is to prepare a Daily Report in the morning which is a combo of Previous day's activities, Today's forecast. This is where I used to have a bit of dissonance later when I look at the market as a trader. I felt some conflict between my stated opinions in the report and need for time decisions in the market.
- My recollection of Taleb's ideas such as " Scandal of Prediction " used to trouble me in forecasting.
- When you trade a stock on both long and short side, you get to know the stock's significant intraday levels. This levels can be used for next day. This I have observed in ABAN's case. The level of 1200 proved to be a good resistance and stock behavior is with less conviction. Laboured pullback to around 1198 yesterday convinced me to short on the open for 2% down move.
- I tried to trade metals weakness via Tata Steel and the fund raising plans also helped me on the short side. But for risk management purposes, I have quickly closed the trade.
No comments:
Post a Comment