Friday, August 14, 2009

Fading UNITECH


Today I tried to fade UNITECH's Strength in the opening. My thought process behind the trade is as follows.

  1. Unitech is near its monthly high of Rs 98. This may be overhead resistance or supply area.
  2. US markets flat with Asian markets marginally negative.
  3. Market Context of 4600 Nifty and 7% move in Unitech and Real estate stocks yesterday.
  4. Anecdotal evidence of large number of retail traders entering real estate stocks on Thursday.
  5. Futures data suggest mild Open Interest Increase ( + 9%) which does not indicate explosive follow through IMHO
  6. India VIX stable ( Not down )
  7. Volumes moderate ( Rs 90000 Cr)
  8. Anecdotal evidence of traders faked out of their shorts in Real estate counters at the closing yesterday.
  9. Unitech's inclusion in MSCI Index may already have been in the price discounted by smart money.
Though I could close the trade for 1% gain

  1. I entered large size ( 10 times normal ) trying to come back from previous day's draw down of 2% of my account.
  2. I should always keep in mind Brett' s advice of "Drama Creates Trauma "
  3. However I have taken solace from reading EdSpec where Victor comments about Losses and Comebacks and going right after a losing trade with size.
  4. I always try to visualize how Victor would have traded that piece or Read relevant Chapters from EdSpec for guidance and inspiration. New meanings and previously hazy material comes to life each time I read perhaps reflecting my incresed struggle to make sense of market movements . It is a constant companion for me.
  5. I regard Victor Niederhoffer, Brett Steenbarger as my two Dronas while I am their Ekalavya student according to Indian Mythology.

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