Guaranteed to Happen

In the tradition of DailySpec, Indian market movement of going down 4% intraday in sympathy with Chinese market is guranteed to happen. Here I quote from DailySpec

" Looking at the performance of the major indexes to date, one notes that the three biggest markets are up 1 to 10% and the average of the 150 medium markets is up about 40%. What is the explanation for this divergence other than the ruination of incentives, and the adjustment of price levels to equal after service returns in the future? Israel up 3% over nite and 44% on year to date gives good precis of what would have happened. "

1. Whatever may be the proximate causes spewed out by Financial Journalists ex-post and ever- ready to attribute and concoct reasons for market movements , Traders are better off considering the pathof least resistance.
2. Many market tells were visible. Bank stocks lagging, No broad sector participation, Low volumes in yesterday's trade.
3. "Market travels in the path that maximizes Volumes" Since marketinfrastructure has to be maintained and paid for it has to extract maximum amount of energy from participants.
   
4. If the trader considers which path will maximize volumes that can give him clues about possiblities.
5. Price discovery being a chaotic process and market does not move in a straight line, Market is about surprises and trading is about nor being surprised by the market can act as a conceptual foundation to react.