Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Short cut to approximating IV,HV

Some of the benefits of sharing market information is the trainer achieves more clarity on specific concepts.

  1. In delivering NSE program on derivatives , I came across a shortcut to approximating Implied Volatility(IV) and Historical Volatility(HV).
  2. Normal approach to caluculating HV involves statistical caluculation.
  3. Devangshu Datta of BS describes a thumb rule approach to estimating HV. It involves calculating the daily  HIGH - LOW range as a % of Futures settle price. You can take say, a 20-day moving average of this in order to get a smoother value. This can be used as a proxy for HV.
  4. For estimating IV, We can take nearest to money call option and nearest to money put option premiums and calculate the breakevens to derive a range. For ex Nifty at 5280, 5300C (premium 100) and 5250 P (128) can be considered. A strangle breaks even outside 5558 -5022. This 536 points can be expressed as a percentage of NIFTY 5300 approx 10% as a estimate of IV. 
  5. Black-Scholes options caluculator gives more precision but a thumbrule approx can be done as above

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